Summer forecast 2025: South Tyrol leads in terms of prices, Bavaria shows the strongest demand trend and Tyrol remains stable

With the start of summer 2025, stable to positive trends are emerging in the destinations of Tyrol, Bavaria and South Tyrol. South Tyrol is leading in terms of demand and price increases, while Bavaria is achieving the strongest growth in occupancy rates. Tyrol remains stable and has potential for further growth.

Thomas Steiner, Managing Partner of Kohl > Partner, in collaboration with RateBoard, a renowned provider of revenue management systems in the Alpine region, has once again carried out a fact check on the 2025 summer season for the destinations of Bavaria, South Tyrol and Tyrol.

1. Summer 2025 booking forecasts: Bavaria shows strongest growth, South Tyrol leads demand, Tyrol with slight increase.

The booking forecasts for summer 2025 show an overall positive trend in all three destinations. Year-on-year growth is +3.6% in Bavaria, +2.5% in South Tyrol and +2.1% in Tyrol.

South Tyrol recorded the highest demand, followed by Bavaria, while Bavaria recorded the strongest growth in occupancy rates. In May in particular, it is noticeable that the Bavarian hotel industry achieves higher occupancy rates than South Tyrol and Tyrol on weekends and public holidays in May and early June. In June, South Tyrol takes the lead again to some extent, and in July and August in particular there is an average gap of around 10% to the other destinations. From mid-September to the end of October, Bavaria predominantly shows higher demand than both Tyrol and South Tyrol.

According to the fact check by Kohl > Partner and RateBoard, a closer look at the forecasts for the individual summer months reveals both differences and similarities in terms of capacity utilisation:

• May: In May 2025, the Tyrolean and South Tyrolean hotel industry showed stagnation or a decline in demand. Tyrol recorded a decline of -5.5%, while South Tyrol also recorded a slight loss with a decline of -1.4%. Bavaria was able to keep demand stable and reached the same level as the previous year at +0.1%.

• June forecast: The forecasts for June show a positive trend for all three destinations, with the strongest increase expected in Tyrol. An increase of 7.2% is forecast here compared to the previous year. South Tyrol and Bavaria are recording an average increase of around 5%.

• Forecast for July and August: The forecasts for July and August are very similar so far. All three regions can expect an increase of around 4% to 4.5%.

• Forecast for September and October: Tyrol and South Tyrol show slight increases in September, while the largest increase of 5.6% is expected in Bavaria. In October, the forecast remains almost stable compared to the previous year, with only minimal fluctuations

2. Rate enforcement: South Tyrol as price leader with strongest growth, Tyrol and Bavaria lagging behind, but with solid to good increases

In comparison to the development in demand, there are clear differences in price enforcement between the destinations: South Tyrol leads the ranking with an average ADR of €318 (+7.5%) and shows the highest price increase.

Tyrol is at a solid level with an ADR of €245 (+5.7%). Especially in June and July, Tyrol shows positive price developments compared to the previous year.

With an average room rate of €219 (+2.6%), Bavaria lags behind the two regions, but shows a constant price trend with solid increases. In the months of May and June, average prices were at almost the same level as in Tyrol.

For further information on the Summer 2025 fact check, please contact Thomas Steiner, Managing Partner of Kohl > Partner, and Matthias Trenkwalder, Managing Director of RateBoard.